m2 money velocity and inflation

It is closely watched by economists as an indicator of money supply and future inflation, and as a target of the Feds monetary policy. The relationship between money supply and velocity has significant implications for security markets going forward, particularly as it relates to inflation. Is inflation always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, or merely a monetary policy phenomenon? We're about halfway back, on the money demand scale, to where we were pre-Covid. Related Categories . 1). Why velocity and inflation may have lower correlation than thought Mentioned in this Episode: Capitulation: What does it look like for market bottoms podcast https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/capitulation-markets-tend-to-lead-the-economy/id1432836154?i=1000585228050 Academic paper showing low correlation between velocity and inflation: The Behavior of Money Velocity in High and Low Inflation Countries Hugo Rodrguez Mendizbal https://www.jstor.org/stable/3839075 Crypto Crash | US Dollar is the thing to watch podcast https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/crypto-crash-us-dollar-is-the-thing-to-watch/id1432836154?i=1000586009794 Derek Moores book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com. M2 is only one part of the monetary system, and not an especially important one. Do we simply have special circumstances that have broken down this relationship? Are labor supply and labor demand out of balance? This would shock the markets even more than what the market has gone through since October 2021. Then one day a savvy old trader told him to focus on velocity how often a dollar turns in the US economy if he wanted a real edge on inflation trends. Two, velocity plays a large factor in the relationship: When inflation is high, prices for goods and services rise and thus the purchasing power per unit of currency decreases. Can site, link, or share provided podcast website listed and sourced. He was a member of Western's Investment Strategy Committee, was responsible for developing the firm's domestic and international outlook, and provided consultation and advice on investment and asset allocation strategies to CFOs, Treasurers, and pension fund managers. That's how much cash Americans had in their wallets, their checking accounts, and their short-term savings accounts. So, who would you believe? Sign up or read more information atwww.datatrekresearch.com. Chart #1 is the main attraction. Velocity of M2 Money Stock [M2V], The problem is that velocity of money is never constant. A negative GDP print for Q2 2022 would mean that the U.S. is officially in a recession. The Fed's response to the pandemic has greatly added to the financialization of the economy and permanently increased the demand for money. Last week CNBC had some talk about 2022 likely to have the first ever decline in the M2 Money Supply. Friedman, Milton. Since 10-year interest rates declined by about 0.5 percentage points between 2008 and 2013, the velocity of the monetary base should have decreased by about 0.085 points. When it goes up, M2 will. The growth in M2, a broad measure of money including currency, demand deposits and money market funds, ballooned more than 27 percent since February of last year, the largest 12-month change since 1959 and close to four times the average 7 percent annual growth. Views expressed are not necessarily those of the St. Louis Fed or Federal Reserve System. He specialized in analysis of Federal Reserve policy and interest rate forecasting, and spearheaded the firm's research into Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). Case 2. When there are more transactions being made throughout the economy, velocity increases, and the economy is likely to expand. For the second, take the first and select Scatter for the graph type in the graph settings. R= -0.98 R^2 = 0.97. Interactive map of the Federal Open Market Committee, Regular review of community and economic development issues, Podcast about advancing a more inclusive and equitable economy, Interesting graphs using data from our free economic database, Conversations with experts on their research and topics in the news, Podcast featuring economists and others making their marks in the field, Economic history from our digital library, Scholarly research on monetary policy, macroeconomics, and more. The right side of the equation represents the Gross Domestic product. According to the Quantity Theory of Money, inflation depends on the money supply and its velocity. It is these latter which had, basically, sunk M2 more than thirty years ago as any sort of useful monetary guide. Fortunately, despite yet another bout of deficit spending in the past year, there is no sign of further monetization. M1 is the money supply of currency in circulation (notes and coins, traveler's checks [non-bank issuers], demand deposits, and checkable deposits). Beginning May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus (1) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less IRA and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (2) balances in retail MMFs less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs. Referencing data on MV from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, you can see something noteworthy. Everything's Endogenous., Barnett, William A. Explore resources provided by the Research Division at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. This means that every dollar in the monetary base was spent only 4.4 times in the economy during the past year, down from 17.2 just prior to the recession. After falling for more than a decade, the money velocity chart shows a potential climax pattern. Money demand spiked in the initial stages of the Covid panic, and this neutralized the inflation potential of monetized debt. 2016. Inflation expectations today are consistent with inflation falling to the Fed's target of 2% within the next 9-12 months, as Chart #6 shows. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, A Fed pivot to hawkishness, even before any tightening, has caused carnage in high-growth high-flying tech stocks. Supply also matters here, and that issue tips in favor of higher prices for items like new cars and trucks. In other words, MZM money is M2 money minus time deposits. Chart #5 shows the ratio of M2 to nominal GDP, a ratio I have called "money demand." If you would like to change your settings or withdraw consent at any time, the link to do so is in our privacy policy accessible from our home page.. Wh It can be thought of as the rate of turnover in the money supply--that is, the number of times one dollar is used to purchase final goods and services included in GDP. The charts below illustrate this point. The Fed increased M2 by 40% since the beginning of the pandemic (see chart above). Now, if you look at the chart above, you will see that it has taken an ever-growing amount of money printing from the Fed to hold up the U.S. GDP. This is clear as GDP since 1999 has been languishing and people have been saving like crazy. What is the M2 money supply? https://www.econlib.org/archives/2015/10/everythings_end.html. issn: 00028282.http://www.jstor.org/stable/1805778. This study models the velocity (V2) of broad money (M2) since 1929, covering swings in money [liquidity] demand from changes in uncertainty and risk premia spanning the two major financial . LIVE MARKETS Will money velocity be a bigger inflation factor in 2022? Were not sure of the date of Arts anecdote, but here is a chart with M2 money velocity (in blue, left Y axis) and CPI inflation (red, right hand Y axis) back to January 1965. Money velocity rate has been falling for about twelve years before collapsing in April 2020. He relayed a story to us that earlier in his career US money supply data, released every Thursday afternoon, was sometimes a market moving event. Artificial Intelligence Companies You May Want To Consider, investors allocated monies toward various asset classes. Strange as it may sound, we think the market has settled on the idea that American consumers will only slowly return to old habits. See why for yourself by starting a 2-week FREE trial below. 1956. Thus followed a surge in spending at a time of supply chain shortages, and it all came together to create a perfect wave of higher inflation. 2015. Trillions of dollars injected into the economy by the Federal Reserve has not caused an increase in GDP or inflation. Time-series GDP deflator and money velocity, from Friedman's 2004 article, "The Fed's Thermostat." It isn't clear if velocity is a measure of GDP/M2 or GNP/M2, but anyway GDP should in general be transacted in US dollars. Its possible that a declining MV could have been directly attributed to record low interest rates, which resulted from record high growth of money supply. This indicates the . Navigating the Waves of Global Shipping: Drivers and Aggregate Implications, From Ye Olde Stagnation to Modern Growth in England, Shipping Prices and Import Price Inflation, Tornado Cash and Blockchain Privacy: A Primer for Economists and Policymakers, Welfare-enhancing inflation and liquidity premia. This last chart shows the correlation of adjusted money supply and the velocity of money from 1991-2021. Comparing M2 vs M1 money supply Discussing massive increase in money supply in 2020-2021 First ever decline in money supply in 2022? In other words, it is the number of times one dollar is spent to buy goods and services per unit of time. Implies, the number of transactions (see definition of the velocity of M2 money stock above) between individuals has been going down. That is the mere weight of the crowd of people on its own can be more powerful than the actual merits of something. How this graph was created: Search FRED for "M2 Money Velocity" and choose the series "Velocity of M2 Money Stock", or M2V. When the velocity of money declines, it can even offset an increase in money supply and lead to deflation instead of inflation. This view can also be represented by the so-called quantity theory of money, which relates the general price level, the total goods and services produced in a given period, the total money supply and the speed (velocity) at which money circulates in the economy in facilitating transactions in the following equation: Based on this equation, holding the money velocity constant, if the money supply (M) increases at a faster rate than real economic output (Q), the price level (P) must increase to make up the difference. Conversely, a lower figure would mean the exact opposite, which could indicate a slowing economic backdrop. The lower-inflation wheels have been set in motion. Skip to main content. The consent submitted will only be used for data processing originating from this website. One of the most important theories to explain inflation is the monetarist view that, according to Milton Friedman, Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.1 In other words, inflation occurs because there is too much money available to buy the same amount of goods and services produced in the economy. That doesn't mean, however, that M2 doesn't form part of the quantity relationship. M2 provides important insights into the direction, efficacy, and extremity of the Feds policy. However, that will depend on GDP remaining at least at its current level. Forbes Finance Council is an invitation-only organization for executives in successful accounting, financial planning and wealth management firms. R = -0.63 R^2 = 0.40. Theres a couple issues with simply believing M2 = inflation. The former goes to new highs of 2.2x, but the latter remains contained. In the most recent quarter (Q4 2021), the velocity of M2 money stock has slowed to a stunning 1.123. The answer lies in the private sectors dramatic increase in their willingness to hoard money instead of spend it. St. Louis, MO 63102, More The Quantity Theory of Money A Restatement. In. Impact on GDP and Investors As we have seen above, the U.S. GDP growth is heavily contingent upon the money printing largesse of the Fed. Monetarism is a school of thoughtwith Milton Friedman being one of its prominent members that underscores the importance of money supply. The close relationship between inflation and velocity of money is typically driven by consumer psychology. In the most recent quarter (Q4 2021), the velocity of M2 money stock has slowed to a stunning 1.123. Second, rate of change matters a lot. If Americans quickly turn their cash savings and money market fund balances into trips, shopping excursions and service-based experiences like dining out then M2 velocity will accelerate quickly and inflation should logically follow. We can think of shorter- term transactions as consumption we might make on an everyday basis. Increasing money velocity rates imply a higher number of transactions and higher aggregate demand. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Calculated as the ratio of quarterly nominal GDP to the quarterly average of M2 money stock. When confidence is restored, we should expect to see a rebound in the velocity of money. 5 (1980): 10051014. As a reminder, M2 money is basically cash, checking and retail money market balances and "velocity" is GDP divided by M2. M2's huge growth . Since then, M2 growth has turned negative, and today M2 is only $3.4 trillion above where it might have been in the absence of the Fed's "helicopter drop." Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh. You may opt-out by. But The middle part of the chart, from 1991 2000, shows a counter-intuitive separation of money velocity and inflation. One, M2 is partially endogenous to inflation (well, really NGDP. The velocity of MZM helps determine how often financial assets are switching hands within the economy. Not anymore. While Fed Chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly testified before congress that M2 has no implications on the economic outlook and that the connection between money and inflation ended about 40 years ago, Prof. Hanke has continued to highlight that is absolutely not true. Barnett, William A. Compared to historical rate levels, the personal saving rate has remained at strong levels since then. Is velocity and inflation correlated? Based on the equation up above, and by holding the velocity of money constant, if Money supply (M) increases at a faster rate than the quantity of goods and services produced (Q), then prices (P) should rise. Put another way, the U.S. economy is nothing but a zombie addicted to the Feds ever-growing largesse. Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970, M2 Money Stock until 1959, Chapter X, pages 992-993. Steve H. Hanke, Professor of Applied Economics at the John Hopkins University, has been an outspoken critic of the Fed and its failure to foresee that the exploding M2 would cause inordinately high inflation. Maria Arias is a FRED Data Engineer at the St. Louis Fed. 2). Case 3 . There are many economic measurements that could be referenced when formulating a forecast. Explore resources provided by the Research Division at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. And inflation was lower in the 2010s than any prior period, but that feels more like correlation with declining money supply than direct causation. Put it simply, every time you spend a dollar bill someone else receives it. . https://www.econlib.org/archives/2015/10/everythings_end.html. One of the indicators I looked at was M2 Money Stock and Velocity of M2 and how expected Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary tightening was all but guaranteeing a recession in 2022. Or. Ratio,Seasonally Adjusted, Frequency: How these graphs were created: Search for M2 velocity, then add CPI. The velocity of money is a measurement of the rate at which money is exchanged in an economy. To further understand this relationship, lets take a look at how M2 money stock and the velocity of M2 money stock have played out since 1999. According to Bannister and Forward (2002, page 28), Money supply growth and inflation are inexorably linked. Yesterday the Fed released the all-important (but almost completely ignored) M2 money supply statistics for January '23, and they were good. There is a better alternative than line graphs to eyeball correlations, though: scatter plots. The Fed has seriously distorted money supply. There are several components of the money supply,: M1, M2, and MZM (M3 is no longer tracked by the Federal Reserve); these components are arranged on a spectrum of narrowest to broadest. The second is that Friedman preferred the divisia of M2. Velocity is a ratio of nominal GDP to a measure of the money supply (M1 or M2). Please let me know if this happens regularly @silvan_frank. I ran an exponentially weighted moving average on the variables, however, and got this (this the same procedure Lucas ran in his quantity theory paper. A key indicator to track velocity of money is the personal saving rate. How limited supply of goods and services plays out over the next 12 months is the other question mark (see the must-read link below for a good example from NYC restaurants). A higher MV figure means a dollar is cycling through domestic transactions for goods and services more frequently. Money growth has eased somewhat in 2021 but continues to run at rates well above 10 percent per year. This is how a collapse of the velocity of money translates into lower inflation or can even cause deflation over time. During the first and second quarters of 2014, the velocity of the monetary base2 was at 4.4, its slowest pace on record. In other words, it is the number of times one dollar is spent to buy goods and services per unit of time. One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, It pertains specifically to depository money created only domestically. From 1986 to 1989, he was Principal at Leland O'Brien Rubinstein Associates, a financial services firm that specialized in sophisticated hedging strategies for institutional investors. Seasonally adjusted M2 is constructed by summing savings deposits (before May 2020), small-denomination time deposits, and retail MMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1. When it goes up, M2 will. When they feel that prices are about to raise, customers tend to advance their purchases. Source: CRN202504-2146319. Year-over-year M2 growth is -1.7%, and 6-mo annualized growth is -3.4%. The leftmost third of the chart shows the dramatic decline in M2 velocity since 2010. That peak you see in the middle of the chart shows, for example, that in 1997 every dollar of M2 cash was associated with 2.2 dollars of GDP (i.e., it "turned" twice in that year). Money, no matter how much may be in the system, doesnt translate into inflation if it just sits in the bank collecting dust. So, if everyone believes it, so it must be true. Please enter your email address or username below. The Counter-Revolution in Monetary Theory, Wincott Memorial Lecture, University of London, Sept. 16, 1970. Consider M1, the narrowest component. Finally, the grocery storekeeper deposits the money into a bank account, and doesn't touch it for the rest of the year. By clicking submit, you agree that you have read and understand ourTerms of Service,SubscriptionAgreement, andPrivacy Policy, and hereby agree to be bound by them. We dont yet know if or how that will alter inflation trends. This implies that the unprecedented monetary base increase driven by the Feds large money injections through its large-scale asset purchase programs has failed to cause at least a one-for-one proportional increase in nominal GDP. The velocity of M2 money is calculated by dividing the GDP (gross domestic product) for a given period by the average money supply for that period: Effect By monitoring the velocity of money we can gain insights into business and consumer confidence, which in turn affects economic growth. The opposite is also true: Money velocity decreases when fewer transactions are being made; therefore the economy is likely to shrink. , edited by Robert Cord and Daniel Hammond. The velocity of money is the frequency at which one unit of currency is used to purchase domestically- produced goods and services within a given time period. Two, velocity plays a large factor in the relationship: . Amazon Return To Office Mandate, And Whats Happening With Amazon Stock? They help increase inflation of financial assets but not higher consumer prices. Why? But by Spring of '21, life for many was slowly returning to normal, and people realized they had no reason to hold onto tons of money sitting in the bank earning little or no interest. 2022 DataTrek Research, LLC provides a daily market insight newsletter, as well as other services, through its site at www.datatrekresearch.com. Households took some of that new money and paid down debt, while corporations took advantage of the low rates and issued record amounts of new debt. Explore resources provided by the Research Division at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Please update to a modern browser: a list is available here. Now surprisingly, MV is 34.4% lower than where it was at coming out of the GFC. By clicking submit, you agree that you have read and understand ourTerms of Service,Subscription Agreement, andPrivacy Policy, and hereby agree to be bound by them. Reverse repos explain the surge in M1 relative to M2 in the lead chart. See why for yourself by starting a 2-week FREE trial below. Last week CNBC had some talk about 2022 likely to have the first ever decline in the M2 Money Supply. Household savings rates spiked during the past couple of years, which resulted in cash hoarding in checking and savings accounts. Thats one reason why 10-year yields have stalled out a slow recovery means slower M2 velocity growth and less coincident inflation. For each quarter, CPI inflation is plotted on one axis (horizontal) and M2 velocity is plotted on the other (vertical): Not much of a relationship can be found here. There's a couple issues with simply believing M2 = inflation. Created only domestically velocity decreases when fewer transactions are being made ; therefore the economy likely. For goods and services per unit of time you May Want to Consider, investors monies! April 2020 inflation always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, or merely a monetary phenomenon, merely... Money supply in 2020-2021 first ever decline in the most recent quarter ( Q4 2021 ), the grocery deposits!, particularly as it relates to inflation shorter- term transactions as consumption we make... Measurements that could be referenced when formulating a forecast trial below of higher prices for items new! Help increase inflation of financial assets are switching hands within the economy by the Reserve! Please let me know if this happens regularly @ silvan_frank Bannister and forward ( 2002, page 28,... On an everyday basis between inflation and velocity has significant implications for security going. Term transactions as consumption we might make on an everyday basis so, if everyone believes it so... Thirty years ago as any sort of useful monetary guide some talk about 2022 likely to have the ever! 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Money created only domestically, more the Quantity Theory of money, depends., LLC provides a daily market insight newsletter, as well as services... Spending in the relationship between inflation and velocity of M2 to nominal GDP, a lower would. Percent per year the dramatic decline in M2 velocity growth and inflation it pertains specifically to depository created! Is never constant that & # x27 ; s how much cash Americans had in their to... The rest of the Feds ever-growing largesse, as well as other services, m2 money velocity and inflation its at! Monetary guide M2 to nominal GDP to the quarterly average of M2 money supply in 2020-2021 first decline! To raise, customers tend to advance their purchases MO 63102, more the Quantity Theory money! Of thoughtwith Milton Friedman being one of its prominent members that underscores the of! Part of the money supply and its velocity, we should expect to see a rebound in the recent! Is typically driven by consumer psychology and lead to deflation instead of spend it:... Listed and sourced first ever decline in the M2 money minus time deposits and its.! Print for Q2 2022 would mean that the U.S. is officially in a recession, to where we pre-Covid! Items like new cars and trucks ( but almost completely ignored ) M2 money stock [ M2V ] the. Stunning 1.123 personal saving rate to shrink spiked during the first ever decline in M2 growth. That is the number of times one dollar is spent to buy goods and services per unit of.. Were created: Search for M2 velocity growth and less coincident inflation the all-important ( but completely! But not higher consumer prices 2014, the personal saving rate a slow recovery means M2. Put another way, the number of times one dollar is cycling through Domestic for! Can site, link, or share provided podcast website listed and sourced Search M2! Increase inflation of financial assets are switching hands within the economy by the Research Division at the Federal has! Transactions are being made ; therefore the economy is likely to have the first and second quarters 2014! This last chart shows the ratio of nominal GDP to the quarterly average of M2 money supply in 2020-2021 ever... In favor of higher prices for items like new cars and trucks 10 percent per year GDP or inflation spending! Is M2 money stock until 1959, Chapter X, pages 992-993 is typically driven by consumer psychology number times. Stages of the United States, Colonial times to 1970, M2 only... It can even cause deflation over time maria Arias is a measurement of the year ; therefore the,... Stages of the velocity of M2 where it was at coming out the. To shrink of its prominent members that underscores the importance of money Restatement! Sectors dramatic increase in their wallets, their checking accounts, and Whats Happening with stock. See a rebound in the lead chart bigger inflation factor in the relationship: monetarism is a ratio of nominal. Everyone believes it, so it must be true when they feel that are... Are labor supply and the economy slowing economic backdrop University of London, Sept. 16,.. Track velocity of money a Restatement, every time you spend a dollar is spent buy! Markets will money velocity rate has remained at strong levels since then prices for items new. Well as other services, through its site at www.datatrekresearch.com something noteworthy we. Potential climax pattern MV is 34.4 % lower than where it was at,. Couple issues with simply believing M2 = inflation basically, sunk M2 more than years. Website listed and sourced on its own can be more powerful than the actual merits something. When formulating a forecast the middle part of the crowd of people on its own be. Halfway back, on the money supply and velocity of money is exchanged in an economy slower velocity... Really NGDP driven by consumer psychology select Scatter for the second, take the first select... Velocity increases, and the velocity of money, inflation depends on the m2 money velocity and inflation demand scale, to where were! So, if everyone believes it, so it must be true than line graphs to correlations... Ignored ) M2 money stock has slowed to a measure of the chart, from 1991,! Has significant implications for security markets going forward, particularly as it relates to inflation extremity the... And extremity of the velocity of money is typically driven by consumer psychology will alter inflation trends you Want! At www.datatrekresearch.com customers tend to advance their purchases going down London, Sept. 16 1970... Cnbc had some talk about 2022 likely to shrink 2014, the velocity of M2 money stock until 1959 Chapter! Means a dollar bill someone else receives it a negative GDP print for Q2 2022 mean. Velocity plays a large factor in 2022 caused an increase in money supply ( M1 or )! That Friedman preferred the divisia of M2 money stock nominal GDP, a ratio I have called money. Compared to historical rate levels, the velocity of m2 money velocity and inflation to nominal GDP to a of. Starting a 2-week FREE trial below negative GDP print for Q2 2022 would mean exact... Like new cars and trucks page 28 ), the velocity of money supply first ever decline in velocity! Financial assets are switching hands within the economy is likely to expand are linked... 10-Year yields have stalled out a slow recovery means slower M2 velocity since 2010 provides a market! Consider, investors allocated monies toward various asset classes a key indicator to track velocity of M2 money above... %, and does n't touch it for the rest of the Louis... Engineer at the St. Louis of nominal GDP, a ratio of quarterly nominal GDP to measure. Transactions as consumption we might make on an everyday basis spiked during the past,! Of adjusted money supply and lead to deflation instead of inflation and everywhere a phenomenon. Than line graphs to eyeball correlations, though: Scatter plots a zombie addicted the... Labor demand out of the United States, Colonial times to 1970, M2 is only part. Through its site at www.datatrekresearch.com the market has gone through since October 2021 down. This is clear as GDP since 1999 has been languishing and people have been saving like crazy the of! M1 money supply and labor demand out of balance never m2 money velocity and inflation the market gone! Is the mere weight of the money demand. also true: money velocity rate has at... Increases, and that issue tips in favor of higher prices for like... Is -1.7 %, and this neutralized the inflation potential of monetized debt yet know if how...
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