March 23, 2003
Questions Of Fact

Two questions for those with military expertise:

1. Do we know for a fact that the two or three missiles reported to have landed in southwestern Iran were American cruise missiles? Are the Iraqis using SAMs in Basra? What goes up must come down, and it seems plausible to me that if (for example) an Iraqi battery 3 miles from the Iranian border fired a SAM at a coalition plane flying 1 mile from the border, and missed, the missile would fall in Iran. Of course, it's quite possible that a few of our hundreds of cruise missiles have gone astray. But it's odd that such long-range weapons would only go astry so close to the border. A brain-dead cruise missile should be able to go hundreds of miles and land in any one of a dozen countries.

2. Coalition forces are reported to be within 100 miles of Baghdad. How close do they have to get before residents are directly aware of their presence? The area is very flat, but there are a lot of fairly tall buildings to block the view. Would they be audible 10, 20, or 30 miles out? (Only in bombing pauses, of course.) Would smoke from battles in the suburbs be visible at those distances?

Posted by Dr. Weevil at March 23, 2003 11:06 AM
Comments

As you can see from the following CNN.com posting, at least one of the missiles that landed in Iran were from Iraq, confirming your hypothesis.
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Iran: Missile was Iraqi, not U.S.
Sunday, March 23, 2003 Posted: 7:32 AM EST (1232 GMT)

TEHRAN, Iran (CNN) -- Iran believes a missile that landed inside its border last week came from Iraq and not the United States, as first suspected, the country's official IRNA news agency said Sunday.

Interior Minister Abdolvahed Moussavi Lari said examinations indicated that the missile, which landed in the western region of Sardasht, was made by Iraq.
...

Posted by: Mike McCullough on March 23, 2003 07:34 PM

Not saying that any of the missiles landing in Iran ARE American, but remember that, during the cruise missile attack on Afghanistan in '98 or so, one landed in Pakistan.

Depending on the reliability of the relevant parts, the trajectories that the missiles follow, and where in that trajectory the relevant part fails (and keeping in mind that the range on these things is such that you need not plot straight-line courses for them), there is probably SOME likelihood that, in the course of the campaign, at least one will stray into Iran.

Just a thought....

Posted by: Dean on March 24, 2003 01:07 AM

Let's don't forget the missiles the US SOLD to Iran in previous years. Wasn't Oli North involved in this, the Iran-Contra scandal??? Maybe, the missile was originally US, but Iran laid one out and said we did it... Hmmmm...

Posted by: JR on March 25, 2003 10:00 PM